After a year in which many prominent 2025 Bitcoin calls proved wide of the mark, the 2026 forecast slate is being framed less as “targets” and more as scenario ranges: mostly bullish, but with a long bearish tail that stretches as far as $10,000. A Wu Blockchain roundup published Dec. 29 argued that the market’s tolerance for target-price narratives has eroded after last year’s “collective miss,” yet major banks, asset managers, and industry executives are still putting numbers and models on what could drive Bitcoin through 2026. The center of gravity sits in a familiar band: roughly $150,000 to $250,000 by end-2026, built on institutional allocation and spot ETF channels. The bears, by contrast, are leaning on macro tightening, slowing demand, or broken technical structure, with downside scenarios clustered at $70,000, $56,000, $25,000, and an outlier $10,000. The Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2026 Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has repeatedly pointed to $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that expanding institutional allocation and the plumbing that makes it easier to express, particularly ETFs can reshape cycle dynamics. That framing sits alongside a more tactical note from within the same shop: Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, flagged the risk of a deeper early-2026 pullback with BTC at $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of the year, plus ETH at $1,800–$2,000 and SOL at $50–$75. Crypto industry leaders also landed on six-figure outcomes. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expects BTC to reach $180,000 by end-2026 during a Binance Blockchain Week panel alongside Solana Foundation President Lily Liu and Binance CEO Richard Teng. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year On the bank side, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou team pegged a “theoretical price / implied fair value” near $170,000 using a volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold relative valuation framework, positioning it more as a model-implied upper reference over the next 6–12 months than a hard year-end target. Standard Chartered, once among the more aggressive bulls, revised down sharply: it now expects roughly $100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 in 2026, citing market weakness and fading drivers, including reduced DAT buying and slowing ETF inflows. That $150,000 neighborhood is crowded. Bernstein reiterated a 2026 target of about $150,000, arguing the latest drawdown does not end the bull market and that the cycle is increasingly extended by institutional capital rather than constrained by the four-year halving cadence. Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve company BSTR, also pointed to $150,000 by end-2026, tying the thesis to clearer US regulation, potential monetary easing — including an end to QT and expectations of rate cuts and continued ETF penetration, with some large banks allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs at suggested allocation ranges of roughly 1%–4%. Citigroup’s framework was more explicitly scenario-based. With Bitcoin around $88,000 in the bank’s note, Citi projected $143,000 over the next 12 months. about 62% upside. anchored to expected ETF inflows and potential US digital-asset legislation. It flagged $70,000 as a key support level, with a bearish case near $78,500 and a bullish scenario at $189,000 if institutional and retail participation scale meaningfully. Arthur Hayes linked his 2026 range to monetary policy semantics. In his Dec. 19 essay “Love Language,” Hayes focused on the Fed’s “RMP (Reserve Management Purchases),” arguing it is effectively QE by another name, and suggested Bitcoin could break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and test the ~$200,000 level as global money creation accelerates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Red Yearly Close: Galaxy Digital Explains The Setup Asset managers were less numeric and more directional. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook predicted a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing sustained institutional demand and a progressively clearer US regulatory environment. Bitwise, in “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” argued 2026 is more likely to “belong to the bulls,” contending that institutional adoption and regulatory progress can outweigh the usual late-cycle pullback narrative tied to the four-year rhythm. Bearish Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2026 The bearish case in the Wu Blockchain roundup is not a single thesis so much as multiple failure modes. CryptoQuant argued that demand growth has slowed enough that Bitcoin may already be in a bear phase, with a nearer-term move toward ~$70,000 and a deeper pullback toward ~$56,000, around its model’s realized price, framed as more plausible in the second half of 2026 if institutional demand weakens and derivatives risk appetite fades. Veteran trader Peter Brandt focused on technical structure rather than demand. He warned that a parabolic growth structure has broken and, based on historical cycle behavior and the idea of “exponential decay” in each successive bull run, said an ~80% drawdown from an all-time high could point toward ~$25,000 as a downside reference. The most extreme call came from Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who warned Bitcoin could drop to around $10,000 in 2026, roughly an 88%–90% decline from its all-time high, on a macro shift toward “post-inflation deflation,” tighter liquidity, and a broader speculative-asset reset. Barclays and VanEck avoided explicit targets but arrived at a similar mood: absent major catalysts, 2026 could be flat to weaker, with declining spot volumes and faded retail participation. VanEck described a “consolidation” year, more digestion than breakout, with opportunities shifting toward second-order developments like mining economics and stablecoin payments rather than headline price levels. Taken together, the 2026 map reads less like a consensus trade and more like a stress test: if ETF and institutional channels keep compounding and policy tailwinds materialize, six figures remain the modal forecast. If demand stalls or macro liquidity tightens, the market’s lower-bound debates — $70,000, $56,000, $25,000, or even $10,000 — will matter just as much for positioning as the bulls’ $150,000–$250,000 ceiling. At press time, BTC traded at $88,027. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
