Summary Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF is a fund with a 0.25% TER, very liquid, which I personally appreciate for short/medium-term operations. It can be placed within 3 dimensions (equity-like, safe asset haven-like, and on-chain). The macro context and the on-chain one play in favor of a bullish thesis, in my view. Unfortunately, the detachment from the anchoring to solutions such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is, in my view, a source of disorientation. Today, I go back to looking at Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with bullish tones, always on Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF (FBTC) (the instrument I prefer for short-term operations) in view of the fact that there could be a contrarian operation on the table not to be taken lightly. I glimpse between the lines 2 reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin looking ahead to 2026, and 1 reason to be fearful. But before getting into the heart of the situation, I’ll leave you with a … Short summary of previous analyses For new readers, I’m happy to leave you a list of the key information to know about FBTC : Let’s start from the fact that FBTC’s objective is to replicate the performance of spot Bitcoin; in doing so, it uses the Fidelity Bitcoin Reference Rate as its benchmark. FBTC - BTC/USD: price (Seeking Alpha) The ETF holds physical Bitcoin and uses Fidelity Digital Asset Services ((FDAS)) as Custodian; custody is split between cold + hot storage. It has a Net expense ratio of 0.25% , which is paid in Bitcoin (an element that in the long term fuels the classic fee drag ), against a truly negligible Bid/ask spread (30d median) of around ~0.05%. The TER is convenient and ranks in the 97th-98th percentile according to Fidelity, therefore among the cheapest. FBTC - profile (Seeking Alpha) Not by chance, it has Net assets of around ~$18.22 billion, which makes it widely accepted globally as a traditional-market alternative to Bitcoin: as a consequence, and not to be taken for granted, it is also strong in volumetric terms. FBTC - Liquidity Grade (Seeking Alpha) For this reason, in my latest coverage , in the comparison with peers such as IBIT, BTC and HODL, I considered FBTC an interesting solution for faster Bitcoin trading operations. FBTC - BTC - IBIT - HODL (Seeking Alpha) My opinion Bitcoin is a dynamic asset, both in terms of price action and in terms of identity. This means that in certain contexts it is an equity-like solution, and tends to move in line with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq; at times it is a safe haven asset , and is associated by supporters with digital gold; at other times instead it is detached from any narrative, and moves following its own dynamics, the on-chain ones. So … looking for answers within these 3 identified boxes, I personally identified 2 reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin, and 1 reason not to be (which we will identify as a risk): BTC comparison (Author) Macro point of view Although, in my view, it is the least sensitive dimension for Bitcoin, the macro context is a positive factor today in my opinion, and the reason can be summarized in a series of elements: Deterioration of trust in fiat currencies. Increase in U.S. fiscal deficits. The Fed has turned dovish with a restarted rate-cut cycle. If real rates remain in decline , there will be a progressive reduction in the attractiveness of bonds and cash. US real rate (Seeking Alpha) Here comes into play the dimension of Bitcoin described as a safe haven asset, a parallel solution to Gold : hedge against inflation. hedge against central bank policy errors. And personally, today I would also add to this dimension the decisive role of the Trump administration ; an administration that nonetheless remains pro-crypto and pro-deregulation. It introduced the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act and is moving toward the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (without direct purchases). On-chain point of view The second dimension lies within models that attempt to describe Bitcoin’s price action based on technical evidence or data that can only be read on-chain. In these models, Bitcoin’s price is located in an intermediate-low area relative to the secular trend. Specifically: Stock to flow is not working as it should; since 2022, Bitcoin’s price (even if bullish) has not been in line with the average defined by the model, which is based on the concept of scarcity. From one point of view it can be associated with a failure of the model, while from another it can also be seen as a dimension of undervaluation. Hashrate does not give operational signals , but in my opinion it gives an idea of the sentiment of market operators. In recent years hashrate has grown significantly, and for this reason it is synonymous with greater interest in market participation by new players. And who would invest in a market destined to die? In my opinion, very few. We are also in the lower range on logarithmic models; my absolute favorite is the rainbow chart , which still places the price among the lower horizons of the chart. We are in minimum zones also from a technical point of view, if we look at the RSI, below the 50-point level. FBTC - Price (Seeking Alpha) Risk It only remains to question the equity-like nature of Bitcoin. This dimension, for me, is the most important one. With the process of institutionalization of the network (which occurred through the deregulation itself of the Trump administration, and began with the launch of ETFs ), Bitcoin has increasingly taken on a strong anchoring to traditional indices. In particular, the index of tech companies, the Nasdaq index . FBTC - Nasdaq-100 (Seeking Alpha)
